Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15878

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15877, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15878
    31 Oct 2026, 04:43 UTC

    UBE2Q2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2Q2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede43b712fc8ebcf81

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication+0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b81303e74c5646853c8aa5a1…
    follows 824f86666f59…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15878: UBE2Q2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.114, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2Q2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.