Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15876

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.284). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15875, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15876
    31 Oct 2026, 04:40 UTC

    RGS7BP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRGS7BP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered10d9f2823a304673

    discovery+0.40 p=0.284 n=9

    replication+0.62 p=0.074 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.284)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c1da71027fb399584932d7c4…
    follows a120df3e9727…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15876: RGS7BP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18), 95% CI +0.07 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.45 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RGS7BP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.