Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15874

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.063). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15873, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15874
    31 Oct 2026, 04:37 UTC

    HNF1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHNF1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredeab4c28587f1812b

    discovery-0.64 p=0.063 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.063)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    15ab0b7d9b5ca5c66c58c3b5…
    follows 21f82759b70d…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15874: HNF1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HNF1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.