Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15865

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15864, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15865
    31 Oct 2026, 04:26 UTC

    PGLYRP3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPGLYRP3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0a7755fcffb9fce2

    discovery-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    da9c400b8011e61ea8cfbd04…
    follows f32d7d0e4e58…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15865: PGLYRP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PGLYRP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.