Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15855

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15854, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15855
    31 Oct 2026, 04:13 UTC

    MTERF2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMTERF2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfc170cb9584f22cb

    discovery+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    84e82310e262b966f1732009…
    follows 979a28e2b1d1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15855: MTERF2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTERF2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.