Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15848

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.217). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15847, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15848
    31 Oct 2026, 04:04 UTC

    TMEFF2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTMEFF2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4fd3898e7e302376

    discovery+0.46 p=0.217 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.217)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d4225f7be852f6196ec6e690…
    follows 2cb3f773197d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15848: TMEFF2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEFF2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.