Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15845

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15844, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15845
    31 Oct 2026, 04:02 UTC

    BRINP2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionBRINP2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered947f80cb42af856a

    discovery+0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.821 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ad9bf37e783adaab8da49909…
    follows 6b077754cbb2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15845: BRINP2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.22, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BRINP2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.