Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15837

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.067). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15836, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15837
    31 Oct 2026, 03:51 UTC

    SPRR3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPRR3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered465d017b4c26d195

    discovery+0.63 p=0.067 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.067)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6c19848d737a654ee1d8299d…
    follows a761e93e9f76…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15837: SPRR3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPRR3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.