Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15835

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.308). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15834, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15835
    31 Oct 2026, 03:48 UTC

    SUGT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSUGT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb16942f6ec18ebc0

    discovery+0.38 p=0.308 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.699 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.308)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cecea80c80b03abd00028fb5…
    follows d15b303d4975…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15835: SUGT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SUGT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.