Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15821

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.565). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15820, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15821
    31 Oct 2026, 03:29 UTC

    MIEN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMIEN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered77acc5a0c5fdf688

    discovery+0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    replication+0.72 p=0.029 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.565)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    829993afdd302450c1d70523…
    follows 1308f06ce01f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15821: MIEN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18), 95% CI +0.04 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.44 to +0.64, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18) vs +0.50 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MIEN1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MIEN1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.38 p 0.183 (needs p < 1.5e-4)