Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15817

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15816, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15817
    31 Oct 2026, 03:23 UTC

    C19orf25

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC19orf25 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2c8cc56cb7b30bf3

    discovery+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.489 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    be859e6aed478e9dd1b17df6…
    follows e6bf8f3d47b3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15817: C19orf25 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C19orf25 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.