Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15811

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15810, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15811
    31 Oct 2026, 03:15 UTC

    FBXL18

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFBXL18 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4fb9bdd75659ec32

    discovery-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication-0.56 p=0.118 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    707b6262de48be8d7be5d069…
    follows d428d723a553…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15811: FBXL18 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FBXL18 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.