Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15809

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15808, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15809
    31 Oct 2026, 03:12 UTC

    BLMH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBLMH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5ece5755bc8a907b

    discovery-0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b4c403b933304d8fabc05bc6…
    follows cf1674bf6634…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15809: BLMH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BLMH in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.