Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15805

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.214). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15804, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15805
    31 Oct 2026, 03:07 UTC

    MRPL41

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMRPL41 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6758700e8f6b8644

    discovery-0.46 p=0.214 n=9

    replication+0.75 p=0.020 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.214)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8d6a366fe75e90e1672bd576…
    follows d4335a39c8ca…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15805: MRPL41 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MRPL41 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.