Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15798

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.539). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15797, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15798
    31 Oct 2026, 02:58 UTC

    VANGL2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionVANGL2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9942c4b179cf6ee0

    discovery-0.24 p=0.539 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.539)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8057ec4cba578df8f08f4068…
    follows 8343e3ce7b9f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15798: VANGL2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VANGL2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.