Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15791

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.426). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15790, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15791
    31 Oct 2026, 02:50 UTC

    ERC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionERC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered50194ae063d02840

    discovery+0.30 p=0.426 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.255 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.426)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    32f475de3bc6c9c99cea5866…
    follows 38b62de7069f…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15791: ERC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ERC1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.