Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15789

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15788, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15789
    31 Oct 2026, 02:47 UTC

    CSE1L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCSE1L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a45d1524c4c9a65

    discovery-0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2b3add703a5d16bfc0c81dbc…
    follows 7067286c0735…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15789: CSE1L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.00, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CSE1L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.