Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15729

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.386). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15728, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15729
    31 Oct 2026, 02:11 UTC

    ADAMTS12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADAMTS12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9ebb9ead669de483

    discovery+0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    replication+0.46 p=0.214 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.386)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3826237f9c7f4cbfb59e3544…
    follows a62908470f59…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15729: ADAMTS12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADAMTS12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.