Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15725

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15724, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15725
    31 Oct 2026, 02:05 UTC

    HAPLN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHAPLN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0675892b102f6783

    discovery+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.170 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    df9251ac15832dcb6d919d52…
    follows 1fdd7589c972…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15725: HAPLN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.37 to +0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HAPLN1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.