Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15705

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.443). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15704, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15705
    31 Oct 2026, 01:41 UTC

    RTL10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRTL10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3bd7fa104b730f4e

    discovery-0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.443)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c10ae494bbd7ffb229f4157a…
    follows 1057a63721e4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15705: RTL10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.81 (p 5.4e-5, n 18) vs -0.28 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RTL10 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RTL10 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 1.5e-4)