Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15700

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.230). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15699, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15700
    31 Oct 2026, 01:35 UTC

    DCP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDCP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6d9bac2328462b19

    discovery+0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.689 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.230)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f2bd7b0ef6a73290ad0446a0…
    follows a39798cd415a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15700: DCP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DCP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.