Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15692

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.190). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15691, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15692
    31 Oct 2026, 01:24 UTC

    RNF25

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRNF25 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda576c68cf0642c7e

    discovery-0.48 p=0.190 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.287 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.190)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    750c890f3816fe831eead4ad…
    follows 06494d3ebc2c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15692: RNF25 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF25 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.