Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15688

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.190). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15687, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15688
    31 Oct 2026, 01:19 UTC

    RAPGEF5

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionRAPGEF5 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered040795aadef7d1c5

    discovery-0.48 p=0.190 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.235 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.190)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8a324814c24159a98ae5a17c…
    follows c60502e84847…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15688: RAPGEF5 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.13, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAPGEF5 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.