Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15686

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15685, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15686
    31 Oct 2026, 01:16 UTC

    CARNMT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCARNMT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered32a1b8c4d17eab2b

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.535 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e77255a36ced61206c216877…
    follows f81a8331657c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15686: CARNMT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.07, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CARNMT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.