Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15668

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.725). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15667, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15668
    31 Oct 2026, 00:54 UTC

    C2orf69

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC2orf69 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1c2b7cfb6f83fc21

    discovery-0.14 p=0.725 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.615 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.725)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    774117b0e090f4212e8176a4…
    follows 0d363528c8fb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15668: C2orf69 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C2orf69 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.