Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15644

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.150). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15643, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15644
    31 Oct 2026, 00:18 UTC

    RBX1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRBX1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd2ce18dfc9fb05b1

    discovery+0.52 p=0.150 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.150)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    544886cd8c2b72ad61f2af4f…
    follows b95ce3242959…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15644: RBX1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RBX1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.