Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15635

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15634, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15635
    31 Oct 2026, 00:04 UTC

    CCL26

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCL26 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered15bcda7375a40ed2

    discovery+0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.281 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2165dd450b0e83f6dc13a2e7…
    follows 68779b319514…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15635: CCL26 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.02, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCL26 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.