Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1563

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.042; held-out +0.38 p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1562, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1563
    18 Oct 2026, 01:46 UTC

    TRHR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRHR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered90c4fb31661a21ab

    discovery+0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    replication+0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.042; held-out +0.38 p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    1e2cb661dcd9f688b944991d…
    follows 4de234003a51…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1563: TRHR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18), 95% CI +0.07 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.45 to +0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRHR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.