Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15628

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.682). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15627, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15628
    30 Oct 2026, 23:56 UTC

    GPM6B

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGPM6B in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda1314a0e06009a0f

    discovery+0.16 p=0.682 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.716 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.682)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8640c4ecc3417a95e9eee91e…
    follows 81789ed097bd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15628: GPM6B in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPM6B in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.