Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15622

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.545). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15621, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15622
    30 Oct 2026, 23:48 UTC

    DBNDD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDBNDD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcf863cb9eab64505

    discovery-0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.545)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3cf303dab4b13057e33d83af…
    follows 07a0adf29263…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15622: DBNDD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to +0.00. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.75 (p 3.1e-4, n 18) vs -0.46 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DBNDD1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DBNDD1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.20 p 0.477 (needs p < 1.5e-4)