Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15606

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.373). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15605, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15606
    30 Oct 2026, 23:29 UTC

    PNLIP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPNLIP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered79f7a62ce443e229

    discovery+0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.373)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ecb239ac9dc16953cb4b10d4…
    follows fbca93002c46…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15606: PNLIP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.243, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PNLIP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.