Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15604

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15603, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15604
    30 Oct 2026, 23:26 UTC

    SLC22A16

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC22A16 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2dd283da16ba75a8

    discovery-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b30251ab7178fa3c9779294…
    follows 82a48dcc4740…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15604: SLC22A16 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.319, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC22A16 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.