Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15600

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.570). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15599, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15600
    30 Oct 2026, 23:20 UTC

    STRC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTRC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaf88717426e80ceb

    discovery-0.22 p=0.570 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.570)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c6923fcfaed8e1e1d74e5d7f…
    follows d87405f07efb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15600: STRC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.319, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STRC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.