Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15586

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.464). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15585, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15586
    30 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC

    RSAD2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRSAD2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered17b4b0b49e12896d

    discovery-0.28 p=0.464 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.464)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fd3829b03da330e20fef4f0e…
    follows 77a1c62b0dd9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15586: RSAD2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RSAD2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.