Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15584

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.812). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15583, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15584
    30 Oct 2026, 22:58 UTC

    LCP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLCP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered06be7b4a4ce17c07

    discovery+0.09 p=0.812 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.216 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.812)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c4d4e6378b0dfa8379eca111…
    follows d7a463d859f2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15584: LCP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LCP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.