Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15576

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.877). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15575, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15576
    30 Oct 2026, 22:47 UTC

    PHLPP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPHLPP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcda804e5be877b92

    discovery-0.06 p=0.877 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.877)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a79b28c99c65afb6f666ff11…
    follows a0606a0f7772…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15576: PHLPP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to +0.04, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PHLPP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.