Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15574

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15573, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15574
    30 Oct 2026, 22:44 UTC

    SLC29A4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC29A4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered998a8cda22627c61

    discovery-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e564e01eef420386addde891…
    follows c7d08940a555…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15574: SLC29A4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC29A4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.