Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15572

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.122). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15571, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15572
    30 Oct 2026, 22:42 UTC

    INSL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionINSL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbd35d2e814464d74

    discovery+0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.122)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dec239b616cb501f89edff7f…
    follows 7dbdfd266d8a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15572: INSL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.21, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for INSL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.