Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15564

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15563, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15564
    30 Oct 2026, 22:31 UTC

    CRYBB2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCRYBB2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1d330409e98eb6a3

    discovery-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.753 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cb09798755c3186f14e1efc8…
    follows e1f000267fb3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15564: CRYBB2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.21, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CRYBB2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.