Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15539

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.54, p 0.130). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15538, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15539
    30 Oct 2026, 21:55 UTC

    COX19

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOX19 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3cb56f2cd01515b1

    discovery+0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.54, p 0.130)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3f742af0d1c32169c45097c8…
    follows 274077938537…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15539: COX19 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COX19 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.