Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15535

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.756). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15534, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15535
    30 Oct 2026, 21:49 UTC

    ACTR1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionACTR1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered69b4f3f243501a7a

    discovery-0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.756)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a915d3319a899ea807ce6932…
    follows 1aceb33feaf3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15535: ACTR1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACTR1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.