Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15533

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.520). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15532, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15533
    30 Oct 2026, 21:47 UTC

    HMGN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHMGN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9427b6aa2e224f22

    discovery+0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.520)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c46e718298fae2fb6711e0ca…
    follows 8b16771f8ea8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15533: HMGN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HMGN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.