Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15513

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15512, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15513
    30 Oct 2026, 21:22 UTC

    ST8SIA6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionST8SIA6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4d1923903afa8427

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.367 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    76f21aa2232ab11650a952ce…
    follows 99ec31117f70…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15513: ST8SIA6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ST8SIA6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.