Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1551

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1550, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1551
    18 Oct 2026, 01:27 UTC

    ZNF837

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF837 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0ce8c4550758186d

    discovery-0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication-0.81 p=0.0087 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8c2125597e1f0a6f92825a82…
    follows 04f114b58ccb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1551: ZNF837 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.13. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.010, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.73 to -0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18) vs -0.56 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF837 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ZNF837 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.45 p 0.110 (needs p < 9.4e-4)