Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15507

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.253). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15506, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15507
    30 Oct 2026, 21:14 UTC

    ZFP90

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZFP90 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a608994b31155e2

    discovery-0.43 p=0.253 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.588 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.253)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    175ad92c956bed7298f5936a…
    follows 0916f40b64dd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15507: ZFP90 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.633, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.00, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZFP90 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.