Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15498

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.443). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15497, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15498
    30 Oct 2026, 21:03 UTC

    IL1RAP

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionIL1RAP in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda292895d3b94f08b

    discovery-0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    replication+0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.443)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    15520bae65c7bb13625ac7ab…
    follows c1469dc91678…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15498: IL1RAP in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL1RAP in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.