Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15496

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.555). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15495, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15496
    30 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC

    SCN3B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCN3B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1b2d14c52d0906fa

    discovery+0.23 p=0.555 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.648 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.555)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    edbef9f68e100786eabcf4d3…
    follows d87a1e2fd08e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15496: SCN3B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.490, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.594, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.490, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCN3B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.