Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15492

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.618). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15491, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15492
    30 Oct 2026, 20:54 UTC

    TENM1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTENM1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered89e07f03970ecf51

    discovery+0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.618)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0ff21cf8bad0c05a529b289a…
    follows 44695bc6dd0b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15492: TENM1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.54 (p 0.022, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TENM1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.