Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15489

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15488, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15489
    30 Oct 2026, 20:49 UTC

    TXNDC9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTXNDC9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered565b2f86859599fe

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.31 p=0.421 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ce9f4bba54a0be606d813d3c…
    follows 121a9689500c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15489: TXNDC9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TXNDC9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.