Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15483

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15482, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15483
    30 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC

    ANKRD40

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionANKRD40 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc6249464b9e2ccf7

    discovery-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.445 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3afd491c050610574468e25d…
    follows 06545ff82505…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15483: ANKRD40 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.21, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANKRD40 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.